The Dead Guy

On March 28, over at Chris Weigant’s blog, Chris asked his readers to place their bets (in quatloos) when Clinton would drop out of the Presidential race. Well, I’ve done pretty well so far. I predicted that Obama would surpass Clinton in Superdelegates before the West Virginia primary (got it right) and several of my delegate totals from the primaries were darn close (I didn’t do so well on my original delegate estimate for Indiana). Also, I was only 1 day off for the John Edwards endorsement of Obama. My final prediction is Clinton drops out on June 16, just 31 days from now.

27. This is the magic number. (more…)

Tags: allotment, amp, bets, Center, chris weigant, clinton, CNN, DC, dcw, delegate, delegate count, democrat, election, endorsement, Indiana, John, John Edwards, June, june 3, Kentucky, magic number, math, Montana, msnbc, New, obama, Oregon, percent, politics, president, Presidential, presidential race, Primaries, primary, Puerto Rico, quatloos, race, rcp, Rep. Pete Stark, South Dakota, star, state, super, superdelegate, superdelegates, Virginia, War, West Virginia

This is an update to “The Cult of Popularity” from April 11 about the final ten contests in the Democratic Presidential Preference elections. Since we are just under one week until the Pennsylvania Primary - I thought now would be a good time for us to visit that “popular vote” strategy that Senator Clinton is trying to employ to sway delegates (both superdelegates and elected delegates) to her side.

I will repeat the same response I have whenever someone tries to rewrite the rules. The DNC determines the Democratic Nominee by only one measure: Delegate count in sanctioned, legitimate elections. However, to quell the cries, I’ve laid out the math of the popular vote scenario. Since the first post, Clinton has made a little headway in the projection (about 11,000 votes) due to a .8% increase in her Real Clear Politics average lead in PA and a new SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky. However, at the same time Obama has tightened the race in Indiana and increased his numbers in Montana and South Dakota while losing a smidgen in North Carolina.

(more…)

Tags: America, American, amp, Arkansas, ballot, campaign, caucus, Caucuses, Center, clinton, convention, dean, delegate, delegate count, democrat, dnc, election, February, fivethirtyeight, Florida, General Election, government, Guam, illegitimate, Indiana, Iowa, June, Kansas, Kentucky, law, leader, Maine, math, McCain, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New, Nominee, North Carolina, obama, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, percent, politics, poll, polling, Pollster, Popular, popular vote, preference, president, President Primary, Presidential, Primaries, primary, Projection, Puerto Rico, race, rcp, real clear politics, republican, Senator Clinton, Somoa, South Dakota, state, super, superdelegate, superdelegates, turnout, Virginia, War, Washington, West Virginia, work

Another of the Clinton campaign and supporters cries of “fairness” is that the popular vote of the primaries should be considered when deciding the Democratic Presidential Nominee. If one angle doesn’t work, try another … and another … and another.

I will repeat the same response I have whenever someone tries to rewrite the rules. The DNC determines the Democratic Nominee by only one measure: Delegate count in sanctioned, legitimate elections. However, to quell the cries, I’ve laid out the math of the popular vote scenario. And in the end, Obama is projected to win the popular vote as well as just about every other concept the Clinton campaign wishes they could find a way to win (against the rules).

(more…)

Tags: America, American, amp, Arkansas, ballot, campaign, caucus, Caucuses, Center, clinton, clinton campaign, convention, dean, delegate, delegate count, democrat, dnc, election, February, fivethirtyeight, Florida, four states, General Election, government, Guam, illegitimate, Indiana, Iowa, June, Kansas, Kentucky, law, leader, Maine, math, McCain, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New, Nominee, North Carolina, obama, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, percent, politics, poll, polling, Pollster, Popular, popular vote, president, President Primary, Presidential, Primaries, primary, problem, Projection, Puerto Rico, rcp, real clear politics, republican, Somoa, South Dakota, state, turnout, Virginia, War, Washington, West Virginia, work

Over at CNN, Wolf Blitzer discusses the trend in Clinton supporters talking about the Electoral College votes of states she won the popular vote in this year’s primaries and how Clinton’s tally beats Obama’s (Blitzer: Is Clinton ahead in the only count that matters?). They put forward the (misconceived) notion that since her 14 popular vote wins represent 219 Electoral Votes (not counting Michigan and Florida, which would put her at 263) beats Obama’s wins representing 202 Electoral Votes.

(more…)

Tags: America, American, American Samoa, amp, Arizona, Arkansas, Bee, blogger, California, campaign, Center, clinton, CNN, DailyKos, delegate, democrat, dnc, election, Electoral College, fivethirtyeight, Florida, General Election, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, McCain, Michigan, Nevada, New, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, obama, Ohio, Oklahoma, poblano, poll, polling, Popular, popular vote, president, Presidential, Primaries, primary, Projection, Rhode Island, Senate, star, state, super, superdelegate, superdelegates, Tennessee, Texas, War, Wolf Blitzer, word

My first post in the blog is the math to the Democratic Presidential Nomination between Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton. This has been a highly contentious and very close race between two strong candidates and their campaigns.

The nomination, by DNC rules, is decided by delegate majority. Currently the magic number is 2,024 delegates to win the nomination. Neither Obama nor Clinton are able to attain that number of delegates without a certain amount of superdelegates. However, Obama currently holds the lead in elected delegates, while Clinton holds the superdelegate lead. More importantly is that Clinton’s lead in superdelegates has been greatly reduced since Super Tuesday, so that she holds a lead of approximately 30 superdelegates (at one time, that lead was over 100).

(more…)

Tags: Alabama, Alaska, America, American, American Samoa, amp, Arizona, Arkansas, august, Barack, Bee, California, campaign, caucus, Center, clinton, Colorado, congress, Connecticut, convention, DC, Delaware, delegate, delegate count, democrat, Democrats Abroad, dnc, election, February, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawaii, Hillary, Hillary Clinton, Idaho, illegitimate, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, June, june 3, Kansas, Kentucky, law, Louisiana, magic number, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, math, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, National, Nebraska, Nevada, New, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nominee, North Carolina, North Dakota, obama, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, percent, politics, poll, Popular, popular vote, preference, president, Presidential, Primaries, primary, Puerto Rico, race, rcp, real clear politics, Rhode Island, Senator Hillary, South Carolina, South Dakota, state, super, superdelegate, superdelegates, Tennessee, Texas, the green papers, Utah, Vermont, Virgin Islands, Virginia, War, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, work, Wrong, Wyoming