Posts Tagged “polling”
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This is an update to “The Cult of Popularity” from April 11 about the final ten contests in the Democratic Presidential Preference elections. Since we are just under one week until the Pennsylvania Primary - I thought now would be a good time for us to visit that “popular vote” strategy that Senator Clinton is trying to employ to sway delegates (both superdelegates and elected delegates) to her side.
I will repeat the same response I have whenever someone tries to rewrite the rules. The DNC determines the Democratic Nominee by only one measure: Delegate count in sanctioned, legitimate elections. However, to quell the cries, I’ve laid out the math of the popular vote scenario. Since the first post, Clinton has made a little headway in the projection (about 11,000 votes) due to a .8% increase in her Real Clear Politics average lead in PA and a new SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky. However, at the same time Obama has tightened the race in Indiana and increased his numbers in Montana and South Dakota while losing a smidgen in North Carolina.
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Another of the Clinton campaign and supporters cries of “fairness” is that the popular vote of the primaries should be considered when deciding the Democratic Presidential Nominee. If one angle doesn’t work, try another … and another … and another.
I will repeat the same response I have whenever someone tries to rewrite the rules. The DNC determines the Democratic Nominee by only one measure: Delegate count in sanctioned, legitimate elections. However, to quell the cries, I’ve laid out the math of the popular vote scenario. And in the end, Obama is projected to win the popular vote as well as just about every other concept the Clinton campaign wishes they could find a way to win (against the rules).
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Over at CNN, Wolf Blitzer discusses the trend in Clinton supporters talking about the Electoral College votes of states she won the popular vote in this year’s primaries and how Clinton’s tally beats Obama’s (Blitzer: Is Clinton ahead in the only count that matters?). They put forward the (misconceived) notion that since her 14 popular vote wins represent 219 Electoral Votes (not counting Michigan and Florida, which would put her at 263) beats Obama’s wins representing 202 Electoral Votes.
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Mark Penn
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NAFTA has not been good to America’s working families. It has been especially hard on working families in Ohio and Pennsylvania. President Bill Clinton signed NAFTA into law. Senator Hillary Clinton promoted it publicly while she was First Lady and up until she began her campaign for President, continued to say that NAFTA has been good to America. And recently, her former Chief Strategist and -still- pollster, Mark Penn, was lobbying to give the country of Colombia free trade status with America.
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Tags: advice, AFSCME, America, American, amp, Bee, California, campaign, Center, Chief Strategist, CIA, clinton, endorsement, Free, Hillary, Hillary Clinton, International, Iowa, labor, law, local, Mark Penn, McCain, Michigan, NAFTA, National, Nevada, New, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, poll, polling, Pollster, president, President Bill Clinton, Presidential, SEIU, Senator Clinton, Senator Hillary, South Carolina, speech, state, Trade, War, word, work
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Mark Penn
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A big hullabaloo was made Sunday of Mark Penn “resigning” his position as Chief Strategist. However, Clinton Campaign Manager Maggie Williams states, “Mark, and Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, Inc. will continue to provide polling and advice to the campaign.” This is what he (and his firm) did under his official position of “Chief Strategist”. Nothing has changed. He’s still doing the same work he did before, just without the title. This is nothing more than the ol’ 3-Card Monte trick and the “Jack” has been palmed so that the public can’t point him out.
***UPDATE (April 7 - 12:53 pm CDT) “Mr. Penn “is still going to be very much involved.”" - source The Atantic’s Marc Ambinder. Why did he resign? Well, it goes back to Free Trade and NAFTA. (more…)
Tags: advice, agreement, America, amp, Bee, Berland, Burson, campaign, Chief Strategist, CIA, clinton, clinton campaign, Colombian, congress, Free, government, Hillary, Hillary Clinton, investigation, law, Manager Maggie Williams, Mark Penn, Marsteller, monte, msnbc, NAFTA, New, New York, obama, Ohio, Policy, poll, polling, president, President Bill Clinton, Presidential, primary, Senator Clinton, star, state, Trade, truth, War, work
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