The Dead Guy

This is an update to a post from earlier this month (The Math of Delegates). I thought since there are new polls available, that it was time to update these figures.

Both Obama and Clinton, as well as their campaigns, stated in the beginning that the nomination is about the delegate count. Only recently, when Clinton began to see her chances slipping in gaining a delegate lead did she want to change the rules of which they both had agreed. However, rules are rules and they are there for a reason - so that there is no doubt and no ambiguity in who the nominee is to be. (more…)

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The race is on in Puerto Rico!

We finally have a poll in Puerto Rico looking at the primary on June 1^st between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama. Conducted by Research & Research between 3/31 and 4/5 of 800 self identified Democrats shows Clinton leading Obama 50% to 37% (MOE ± 4.4%).

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Over at CNN, Wolf Blitzer discusses the trend in Clinton supporters talking about the Electoral College votes of states she won the popular vote in this year’s primaries and how Clinton’s tally beats Obama’s (Blitzer: Is Clinton ahead in the only count that matters?). They put forward the (misconceived) notion that since her 14 popular vote wins represent 219 Electoral Votes (not counting Michigan and Florida, which would put her at 263) beats Obama’s wins representing 202 Electoral Votes.

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Mark Penn

NAFTA has not been good to America’s working families. It has been especially hard on working families in Ohio and Pennsylvania. President Bill Clinton signed NAFTA into law. Senator Hillary Clinton promoted it publicly while she was First Lady and up until she began her campaign for President, continued to say that NAFTA has been good to America. And recently, her former Chief Strategist and -still- pollster, Mark Penn, was lobbying to give the country of Colombia free trade status with America.

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Mark Penn

A big hullabaloo was made Sunday of Mark Penn “resigning” his position as Chief Strategist. However, Clinton Campaign Manager Maggie Williams states, “Mark, and Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, Inc. will continue to provide polling and advice to the campaign.” This is what he (and his firm) did under his official position of “Chief Strategist”. Nothing has changed. He’s still doing the same work he did before, just without the title. This is nothing more than the ol’ 3-Card Monte trick and the “Jack” has been palmed so that the public can’t point him out.

***UPDATE (April 7 - 12:53 pm CDT) “Mr. Penn “is still going to be very much involved.”" - source The Atantic’s Marc Ambinder. Why did he resign? Well, it goes back to Free Trade and NAFTA. (more…)

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My first post in the blog is the math to the Democratic Presidential Nomination between Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton. This has been a highly contentious and very close race between two strong candidates and their campaigns.

The nomination, by DNC rules, is decided by delegate majority. Currently the magic number is 2,024 delegates to win the nomination. Neither Obama nor Clinton are able to attain that number of delegates without a certain amount of superdelegates. However, Obama currently holds the lead in elected delegates, while Clinton holds the superdelegate lead. More importantly is that Clinton’s lead in superdelegates has been greatly reduced since Super Tuesday, so that she holds a lead of approximately 30 superdelegates (at one time, that lead was over 100).

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