The Dead Guy

Four Three states are enabling the Clinton campaign in their subterfuge that “Hillary Clinton leads in the popular vote.” The only four three state parties which have not released hard counts broken down by candidate are: Iowa, Maine, Nevada, & Washington. These states hold party-run caucuses, and therefore are not required to release their counts to the public. However, every other caucus state party has released their data, and it is the secrecy of these four three that allows the Clinton campaign to continue misleading the American people.

“Hey - Iowa, Maine, Nevada, & Washington - count our votes!”

UPDATE: I just received a spreadsheet from a person in Nevada - they did keep track of precinct turnout, but not candidate strength within each precinct, only by delegates. When I get a chance this weekend, I’ll post the numbers.

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This is an update to a post from earlier this month (The Math of Delegates). I thought since there are new polls available, that it was time to update these figures.

Both Obama and Clinton, as well as their campaigns, stated in the beginning that the nomination is about the delegate count. Only recently, when Clinton began to see her chances slipping in gaining a delegate lead did she want to change the rules of which they both had agreed. However, rules are rules and they are there for a reason - so that there is no doubt and no ambiguity in who the nominee is to be. (more…)

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This is an update to “The Cult of Popularity” from April 11 about the final ten contests in the Democratic Presidential Preference elections. Since we are just under one week until the Pennsylvania Primary - I thought now would be a good time for us to visit that “popular vote” strategy that Senator Clinton is trying to employ to sway delegates (both superdelegates and elected delegates) to her side.

I will repeat the same response I have whenever someone tries to rewrite the rules. The DNC determines the Democratic Nominee by only one measure: Delegate count in sanctioned, legitimate elections. However, to quell the cries, I’ve laid out the math of the popular vote scenario. Since the first post, Clinton has made a little headway in the projection (about 11,000 votes) due to a .8% increase in her Real Clear Politics average lead in PA and a new SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky. However, at the same time Obama has tightened the race in Indiana and increased his numbers in Montana and South Dakota while losing a smidgen in North Carolina.

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Another of the Clinton campaign and supporters cries of “fairness” is that the popular vote of the primaries should be considered when deciding the Democratic Presidential Nominee. If one angle doesn’t work, try another … and another … and another.

I will repeat the same response I have whenever someone tries to rewrite the rules. The DNC determines the Democratic Nominee by only one measure: Delegate count in sanctioned, legitimate elections. However, to quell the cries, I’ve laid out the math of the popular vote scenario. And in the end, Obama is projected to win the popular vote as well as just about every other concept the Clinton campaign wishes they could find a way to win (against the rules).

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My first post in the blog is the math to the Democratic Presidential Nomination between Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton. This has been a highly contentious and very close race between two strong candidates and their campaigns.

The nomination, by DNC rules, is decided by delegate majority. Currently the magic number is 2,024 delegates to win the nomination. Neither Obama nor Clinton are able to attain that number of delegates without a certain amount of superdelegates. However, Obama currently holds the lead in elected delegates, while Clinton holds the superdelegate lead. More importantly is that Clinton’s lead in superdelegates has been greatly reduced since Super Tuesday, so that she holds a lead of approximately 30 superdelegates (at one time, that lead was over 100).

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