The Dead Guy

Another of the Clinton campaign and supporters cries of “fairness” is that the popular vote of the primaries should be considered when deciding the Democratic Presidential Nominee. If one angle doesn’t work, try another … and another … and another.

I will repeat the same response I have whenever someone tries to rewrite the rules. The DNC determines the Democratic Nominee by only one measure: Delegate count in sanctioned, legitimate elections. However, to quell the cries, I’ve laid out the math of the popular vote scenario. And in the end, Obama is projected to win the popular vote as well as just about every other concept the Clinton campaign wishes they could find a way to win (against the rules).

Popular Vote Totals and Projection for 2008
	2004	Increase	Est 2008	Spread O - C	Obama	Clinton	Obama Lead	Source Spread
Primaries/Caucuses to date	(W/O 4 Caucus states & FL, MI)				13,355,209	12,638,123	717,086	RCP
Pennsylvania	789,882	1.87	1,476,640	-7.8%	680,731	795,909	-115,178	RCP Avg
Guam	1,049	1.87	1,961	-14.7%	836	1,125	-289	Somoa spread
Indiana	317,211	1.87	593,008	-7.0%	275,749	317,259	-41,510	RCP
North Carolina (2000)	544,922	1.87	1,018,701	15.6%	588,809	429,892	158,917	RCP Avg
West Virginia	252,839	1.87	472,668	-28.0%	170,161	302,508	-132,347	Pollster
Kentucky	229,916	1.87	429,815	-29.0%	152,584	277,231	-124,647	Pollster
Oregon	368,544	1.87	688,972	10.0%	378,935	310,038	68,897	Pollster
Puerto Rico (2 million reg)	caucus		1,060,000	-13.0%	461,100	598,900	-137,800	Pollster
Montana	93,543	1.87	174,873	11.7%	97,667	77,207	20,460	FiveThirtyEight
South Dakota	84,405	1.87	157,790	6.4%	83,944	73,846	10,098	FiveThirtyEight
**SUBTOTAL**	Obama Lead (W/O IA, ME, NV, WA)				16,245,725	15,822,036	423,687
Caucuses in IA, ME, NV, WA					334,084	223,862	110,222	RCP
**TOTAL**	(W/O illegitimate primaries in FL, MI)				16,579,809	16,045,898	533,909

First we lay out the totals we know to date and Obama leads Clinton in the popular vote by 717,086 votes. This does not include FL or MI because the DNC discounted their primaries when they decided to break the rules by moving their primary dates prior to February 5, 2008. And we won’t add in Iowa, Maine, Washington and Nevada until later in this process even though statewide turnout figures are available for those caucuses - the four states never released actual total voters per candidate.

Then the next 10 contests are projected using their 2004 Democratic President Primary turnout and multiplying by 1.87 (I have calculated the average increase in turnout from 2004 to 2008 based upon the completed contests this year - which is 1.87). There are two exceptions to this. North Carolina did not hold a primary in 2004, but county conventions, so I have used the 2000 turnout, instead. The other is Puerto Rico, which had caucuses in 2004 and currently has approximately 2 million registered voters. Using a recent poll out that 53% of self identified Democrats are definitely voting in the primary, and the fact that it is an open primary I arrived at the 1.06 million number by doing the math of 2 million times 53%. I know this seems wickedly high, I agree and don’t think it will truly be that high. However, by doing so I do give Clinton a nice little bump in the projections for her fans.

Also, Kentucky and West Virginia are VERY high spreads for Clinton - that’s the problem with only 1 recent poll available. The only 2 states she ever did that well in so far are Oklahoma and Arkansas. She’s never hit 20+ point spread otherwise. However, again being conservative for Obama and giving Clinton a bit of a bump in the numbers.

Once the expected turnout is calculated, I collected the current spread from polling data websites. Where possible, I used the the Real Clear Politics average of polls. Where there was only one recent poll, I used that. Sources are specified on the right of the table above. Three exceptions: Guam has no polls, so I used the results from American Somoa; Montana and South Dakota do not have polls at this time, either - so I used the differences between Obama and Clinton compared to the General Election match up with McCain on FiveThirtyEight. It is probably more conservative in spread than what a poll would show in a head-to-head between Obama and Clinton.

At this point, Obama still holds a lead of 423,687 votes. Next I add in the estimate that Real Clear Politics gives for the voter breakdowns for the four caucus states. The way this was determined was by taking the statewide turnout and using either the candidate percentages supplied by the state or used precinct delegate counts for each candidate divided into total precinct delegates statewide and then multiplying that by the total statewide turnout. It’s not exact - but it gives a very good picture.

That brings Obama’s lead to 533,909 votes over Clinton. Obama wins the popular vote tally as well. Again - Obama campaign supports following the rules all the candidates agreed to, that it is the delegate count that matters. This entry is only here to hopefully silence the voices of the Clinton supporters that say we should consider the popular vote. When we project using reasonable numbers, Cinton will still be in second place when it comes to the popular vote tally. And that’s with a couple of the projections being calculated more in her favor than they will end up in real life.

Unless a miracle occurs, Obama will win the popular vote along with the most states and most elected delegates.

But what about Michigan and Florida?

Before I get this question, I will answer it right now. It’s a moot point. I sympathize with the voters in Michigan and Florida (Heck, I worked with the Florida Democratic Party in 2000), but the party leaders did nothing to attempt to follow the rules of the DNC in regards to their primary dates.

In Michigan, Governor Granholm (Democrat supporting Clinton) signed the bill into law that moved the primary up. Six of the eight Democrats removed their names from the ballots - only Clinton and Kucinich did not.

In Florida, it was the Republican controlled legislature that moved up the date of the primary. However, the Democrats voted unanimously along with that date. Now some will say that it was tagged onto a very good-government bill and they couldn’t vote against it. I’ll agree with that. But instead of calling an immediate press conference afterwards saying though they were completely against moving the date up, they supported the bill for all of the other sections. Also, the Florida Democratic Party leadership unanimously supported the move of the primary date at a June 2007 meeting. Democratic candidates were wary about removing their names from the ballots in Florida because by doing so, there is a Florida regulation that could mean they wouldn’t appear on the General Election ballot in November.

Both state Democratic Parties knew the rules. They both played chicken with the DNC, putting their own voters at risk. When asked in 2007 about choosing between delegates being seated and being perceived as “relevant” to the process - they verbally chose relevant over seated delegates. Well, Howard Dean and the DNC didn’t blink and the state Democratic Parties lost their own people their voice in the process.

So, since FL and MI didn’t follow the rules that their people agreed to in 2006 - their elections were illegitimate and no results should be counted.

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This entry was posted on Friday, April 11th, 2008 at 3:55 and is filed under 2008 Cycle, Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.