The Dead Guy

This is an update to a post from earlier this month (The Math of Delegates). I thought since there are new polls available, that it was time to update these figures.

Both Obama and Clinton, as well as their campaigns, stated in the beginning that the nomination is about the delegate count. Only recently, when Clinton began to see her chances slipping in gaining a delegate lead did she want to change the rules of which they both had agreed. However, rules are rules and they are there for a reason - so that there is no doubt and no ambiguity in who the nominee is to be.

Below is a table of current delegate and superdelegate estimates includes numbers found on Real Clear Politics and The Green Papers web sites. The remaining 10 states/territories left to vote in their elections for the Democratic nomination are also listed with my estimate of results in each state. How did I figure the remaining 10 states? Check my previous post “And Then There Were 10″. I applied the percentages from that post to each of the sets of elected delegates available in that state, usually:

• Pledged PLEOs (based upon state-/territory- wide percentage of votes)
• Pledged At-Larges (based upon state-/territory- wide percentage of votes)
• Each Congressional District (based upon percentage of votes within CD)
  • Each CD has its own count of delegates to be sent - from 2-9 delegates per CD, varies by CD and state/territory

As you will see - At no time in the coming 10 contests will Clinton be able to get close to, let alone catch up or surpass Obama in the elected delegate count:

DELEGATE COUNTS PER REAL CLEAR POLITICS (April 18, 2008)
State	Date	Delegates	Obama	Clinton	Edwards
Iowa	3-Jan	45	25	14	6
New Hampshire	8-Jan	22	9	9
Nevada	19-Jan	25	13	12
South Carolina	26-Jan	45	25	12	8
California	5-Feb	370	166	204
New York	5-Feb	232	93	139
Illinois	5-Feb	153	104	49
New Jersey	5-Feb	107	48	59
Massachusetts	5-Feb	93	38	55
Georgia	5-Feb	87	60	27
Minnesota	5-Feb	72	48	24
Missouri	5-Feb	72	36	36
Tennessee	5-Feb	68	28	40
Colorado	5-Feb	55	35	20
Arizona	5-Feb	56	25	31
Alabama	5-Feb	52	27	25
Connecticut	5-Feb	48	26	22
Arkansas	5-Feb	35	8	27
Oklahoma	5-Feb	38	14	24
Kansas	5-Feb	32	23	9
New Mexico	5-Feb	26	12	14
Utah	5-Feb	23	14	9
Delaware	5-Feb	15	9	6
Idaho	5-Feb	18	15	3
North Dakota	5-Feb	13	8	5
Alaska	5-Feb	13	9	4
American Samoa	5-Feb	3	1	2
Washington	9-Feb	78	52	26
Louisiana	9-Feb	56	34	22
Nebraska	9-Feb	24	16	8
Virgin Islands	9-Feb	3	3	0
Maine	10-Feb	24	15	9
DC	12-Feb	15	12	3
Maryland	12-Feb	70	42	28
Virginia	12-Feb	83	54	29
Wisconsin	19-Feb	74	42	32
Hawaii	19-Feb	20	14	6
Democrats Abroad (3 delegates tba)	21-Feb	7	3	1
Vermont	4-Mar	15	9	6
Rhode Island	4-Mar	21	8	13
Ohio	4-Mar	141	66	75
Texas	4-Mar	193	99	94
Wyoming	8-Mar	12	7	5
Mississippi	10-Mar	33	20	13
Elected Delegates To Date			1415	1251	(164 lead)
Remaining States (based upon “And Then There Were 10″ sources - 18 Apr)					% O-C
Pennsylvania	22-Apr	158	71	87	-5.6%
Guam	3-May	4	1	3	-14.7%
Indiana	6-May	72	35	37	-2.2%
North Carolina	6-May	115	64	51	14.5%
West Virginia	13-May	28	10	18	-28.0%
Kentucky	20-May	51	19	32	-32.5%
Oregon	20-May	52	29	23	10.0%
Puerto Rico	3-Jun	55	24	31	-13.0%
Montana	3-Jun	16	9	7	12.2%
South Dakota	7-Jun	15	8	7	7.6%
Remaining Elected Delegates			271	295
Elected Delegates To Date			1415	1251
Remaining Elected Delegates			271	295
TOTAL ELECTED DELEGATE EST.			1686	1546	(140 lead)
Superdelegates (PER RCP)			233	256
TOTAL EST. DELEGATE STRENGTH			1919	1802	(117 lead)
Florida & Michigan per THE GREEN PAPERS (April 18, 2008)
Michigan	15-Jan	128	0	73	unc-55
Florida	29-Jan	185	67	105	Edwards-13
FL & MI Totals			67	178
TOTAL ELECTED DELEGATE ESTIMATE IF FL & MI WERE COUNTED
Elected Delegates To Date			1415	1251
Remaining Elected Delegates			271	295
TOTAL ELECTED DELEGATE EST.			1686	1546
FL & MI Totals (per The Green Papers)			67	105
TOTAL W/ FL & MI SEATED			1753	1651	(102 lead)
Superdelegates (PER RCP)			233	256
TOTAL EST. DELEGATE STRENGTH			1986	1907	(79 lead)

As you can plainly see, there is not a realistic mathematical possibility for Clinton to attain an elected delegate lead. And each day that passes, even an unrealistic chance becomes more impossible. The only way for Clinton to wrestle the Democratic Presidential Nomination is through strong-arming the remaining superdelegates. Note that in just the past 11 days since my first post on this topic, Obama has gained 12 superdelegates to Clinton’s 6.

It’s all about the delegates.

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This entry was posted on Saturday, April 19th, 2008 at 1:06 and is filed under 2008 Cycle, Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.